In aluminium, 80 per cent of the sector is already using global best smelting technology. Technology options to reduce emissions are limited; companies will therefore have to improve the efficiency of on-site power generation system and move to renewables to go low carbon. Therefore, says the CSE study, the growth of this sector here means a four-fold increase in total emissions in the BAU scenario. In an LC scenario, emissions intensity reduces, but only if 30 per cent energy is sourced from renewables.

The paper and pulp industry performs poorly in terms of energy use, and its CO2 emissions are high. The sector has begun changing its raw material from diverse wood and non-wood sources to wastepaper and market pulp. As a result, in a BAU scenario, emissions intensity reduces by 30 per cent by 2030. In an LC scenario, emissions intensity can reduce by as much as 40 per cent by 2030, but this will require retiring all old plants and investing in new energy-saving technologies.

“Steel will be the problem sector for India,” says Chandra Bhushan. “This sector will not be able to reduce emissions intensity significantly because of the technology choices it is making today – moving from blast furnace process route to sponge iron. Close to 60 per cent of India’s steel will be produced using sponge iron in which emissions efficiency gains are few.”

The study concludes that in the BAU scenario, industry, at its own cost, will reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2030. This will help the world avoid 700 million tonne of CO2 emissions annually in 2030. In addition, between the BAU and the LC pathways, an additional 10 per cent emissions can be avoided – this, however, will require considerable expense. 

Says Narain: “Under all circumstances today, the options for serious emissions reduction are limited in the industrial model we belong to or want to inherit. What our study shows is that the world – and India — has to seriously rethink and rework its economic model for the future.”

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